Directors' Cut: David Taylor on people power

"The opinion of the strongest is always the best" (La Fontaine Fables - Book One)

As IT moves into the new millennium and we start to look forward we should ask - what lies ahead? With the Year 2000 behind us, who will shape the future? As our young industry at last grows out of puberty, who will play the biggest role in deciding our destiny?

To date, the power players have been the manufacturers and suppliers. They have had the loudest voices, the deepest wallets - and the biggest vested interests.

They may have spent much of their time arguing with other suppliers, (usually before joining forces in an alliance with those same people), but the facts remain: they hold the upper hand in all areas of IT. Over 50 per cent of IT staff now work for suppliers, as opposed to corporate IT departments. People turn to Bill Gates for guidance, advice and leadership. The suppliers also command a greater government audience when it comes to comment on legislation.

Long-term outsourcing deals are increasingly popular, particularly in the public sector. Suppliers can in general pay more than corporates and can therefore attract the best talent. The new technology market is becoming a more exciting place to work.

But could the imbalance of power finally be tipping in favour of the end user? The number of major players is falling. Mega-mergers are on the up (e.g. AOL and Netscape), and even the heaviest of hitters are being threatened by new entrants (e.g. Linux), or new routes to market (e.g. Dell). Some are simply disappearing because they cannot shift strategy fast enough (e.g. Wang). IT staff employed on the supply side do not have the security or choice they once did.

Moreover, the suppliers' dominance is being threatened by a new-found emphasis on the I in IT. The last 12 months has seen a positive desperation for greater awareness of 'information' and the term 'knowledge management' has not so much emerged, as exploded. Suddenly knowledge is power, and the more information one has, the greater the competitive advantage - at least in theory.

Sadly it has not worked out to be quite so simple. One IT director told me recently that his company had spent more than £500,000 on knowledge management over the previous 12 months and his business had not gained one new customer as a result.

However, I am certain that the power will shift away from suppliers in the next five years. It has to, if corporate IT - i.e. how technology is applied to business, economic and national advantage - is to see real payback for the investments already made.

In addition, new groups are emerging to represent corporate IT and a new breed of IT directors is emerging, a breed which is focused on business delivery. As Rene Carayol, CIO and IT director of IPC Magazines, so brilliantly puts it, these people are dedicated to "getting technology off our tongues".

This will create a more level playing field when it comes to disputes with vendors, arguments over bug-ridden software and strength of voice in the legislative arena. But future power, competitive and strategic advantage, lies in yet another direction.

The truth is that while technology still has a major part to play in shaping strategy, it is no longer the most important factor. In January I wrote a column predicting the major trends for 1999. I said that technology would continue to be the most important factor in deciding corporate, business and economic strategy.

I was wrong.

The developments I have seen in the first four months of 1999 have convinced me that the importance of technology, and knowledge, have been overtaken by the importance of new ideas. The next 12 months will see an almighty struggle to capture, focus and release imagination. Companies that do this will be the winners, regardless of whether they are manufacturers, suppliers or customers.

The power players in the new century will be the ones that release the full power of their people. All the new technology in the world will be but a blade of grass when compared to the potential that lies dormant within our people. Realise this potential, and you shall be master.

* David Taylor is the former head of IT business services at Cornhill Insurance and now president of the UK IT directors' association, Certus. He is also CEO of IT Turnaround (http://www.dtaltd.co.uk )