The millennium bug: what the public really thinks

Travel or don't travel? Stockpile versus don't stockpile? Huge celebrations or complete disaster? With all these conflicting messages being bandied around, the general public could be forgiven for being slightly confused about the impact of the millennium bug.

The government points to results from the last National Infrastructure Forum, which showed that the nation's utilities and essential services are near compliant or compliant.

The government's millennium watchdog, Action 2000, is certainly satisfied that all appropriate action has been taken. The organisation's latest study showed that 99 per cent of the FTSE 500 companies were ready for the millennium, while 93 per cent of companies employing more than 250 people said they were prepared and expected no material disruption due to the bug.

But Robin Guenier, executive director at the government's former watchdog Taskforce 2000, remains unconvinced. He claims, that "past scepticism about the interpretation of Action 2000 surveys has always proven justified. Is this time likely to be any different?"

According to Taskforce 2000's own figures, not all companies have had the foresight to prepare. A survey it conducted in October showed that 86 per cent of Britain's top 1,000 companies were worried about telecoms failures, while 84 per cent were preparing for power outages. Robin Guenier said that despite assurances, "big business doesn't seem to believe it" (see 'UK business concern growing over Y2K infrastructure failure' http://www.silicon.com/a33435 ).

Even Action 2000's own figures show that only 24 per cent of small- and medium-sized businesses have completed Y2K preparations - but isn't overly concerned. The tourism, hotels and services sectors have performed particularly badly, but Don Cruickshank, chairman of Action 2000, said: "These areas are not a surprise to us, nor are they a serious concern. Firstly, they are in a supply chain relationship that is not serious for the economy. Secondly, they operate in a highly competitive area, so if a certain B&B cannot take a booking in Torquay, then the one next door will. There comes a time when an official in my position has to say: 'On your own head be it'" (see 'Three out of four SMEs still not ready for Y2K' http://www.silicon.com/a34372 ).

So the question is: who does the general public believe? Silicon.com spent some time wandering the streets of Chelsea asking Jo and Joe public whether New Year's Eve will herald a period of chaos, or if it would be alright on the night...

One retired gentleman insisted: "A lot of it is media hype. I think a lot of people have sorted out their problems and the individual really should not have a problem to think about at this stage and I feel that a lot of companies such as electricity, gas and water have sorted out their problems."

A housewife agreed with him: "I don't think there will be major problems with the millennium, as steps have been taken to counteract any problems. The worst that will happen is that people's dates will show incorrectly on their computers."

Action 2000's rhetoric has certainly got through to this Peter Jones employee. "I don't really think there is going to be much of a problem. As long as companies have had the foresight to actually prepare for it, there should not be a problem and thankfully most companies have already prepared themselves for it," he said.

One 81 year old Chelsea Pensioner has a fool-proof way to deal with potential ATM problems. "I never use cash points, I don't believe in them. When I go out for an evening I put a £20 note in my sock. I've never known a mugger take your shoes off you."

But industry cynics claim that a lack of understanding and blind belief in the research published by Action 2000 has led to the conclusion that it will be business as usual. Even one member of the Kings Road shopping brigade showed signs of scepticism: "A lot has been covered up and there are potentially more problems than have been seen. I do think people are wise to stock up on a few items."

Perhaps the most level-headed advice came from the 81 year old Chelsea Pensioner. "We are continually being bombarded that if you eat this you'll die, if you don't do this you'll die. But from the time we are born to the moment we pass away we are going to die of something, so I just get on and enjoy life."

Which is exactly what the general public seem to be planning to do - no matter how misguided some organisations might think this to be.

To see these interviews in full, tune into today's video vox pop on http://www.silicon.com/a34615 .