The Bloor Perspective: Really free Linux, WAP awareness and the rise of Veritas

You'd think money wouldn't come into it with Linux. After all, you don't pay to use the system. But a lot of money has been riding on the exploitation of the operating system. The money making scheme touted by Linuxcare doesn't seem to be delivering the goods, and so shows up some interesting features of the Linux market. And the nature of the open software movement seems to engender some strange attitudes.

The Linuxcare theory was that booming use of the operating system would suck in support and training services. Ambitious growth plans have now turned sour, though, as the CEO leaves the company along with a quarter of the staff. The public offering of shares is now on hold.

Accusations are flying, including claims of high levels of spending and too much attention to the share offering to the detriment of building a sound business.

The outcome raises questions about the nature of the Linux market. The open source movement looks capable of delivering software without charge, but it is clear the same cannot be done with services. Linux has grown rapidly in popularity, particularly as a platform for appliances, computers dedicated to one purpose or sometimes a few related purposes. Detractors have always pointed to the lack of professional services to back up the use of Linux.

That led to the theory that there was money to be made by providing Linux services to the growing number of commercial organisations using the system. Unfortunately, there are some snags. Not only is the software free, there is also a strong network of people willing to provide mutual support without charge. Many organisations are finding that they have few problems with Linux, and that they can solve the problems they do have without the need for professional services. There hasn't been a boom in training either, since technicians often have a background in one of the other Unix versions.

*WAP finds its place in Europe*

The hype surrounding WAP is undoubtedly growing in Europe. A survey by NOP Research indicates that there will be a high level of adoption amongst existing Internet users, and that France will be in the forefront. The survey concluded that 22 per cent of French Internet users, 11 per cent of German users and nine per cent of UK users are likely to purchase WAP phones this year.

According to NOP, awareness of WAP technology is particularly high in Germany, with 56 per cent of Internet users being aware of the technology. In France, 36 per cent of users are aware but almost two-thirds of them intend to become early adopters. In the UK awareness of WAP is lower at 28 per cent, despite the exposure it has had on television.

According to the survey, two-thirds of UK Internet users already own a standard mobile phone, compared with 45 per cent of the adult population in total.

In reality, the current WAP capability is really little more than a two-way pager. Messages can be sent and simple selections can be made, but nothing sophisticated can be done because of bandwidth and screen size. Even so, it is already possible to have name, address and diary capabilities made visible to you through a WAP phone and it is also possible to execute simple transactions. This, however, is the foundation for new types of Internet applications based upon alerts. Unfortunately such applications are going to be thin on the ground for a few months yet.

It is difficult to understand why anyone should be enthusiastic to adopt WAP right now. The NOP figures from France are surprising - perhaps the French will lead in application deployment.

*Veritas reaches critical mass*

Veritas recently declared an outline agreement with IBM to port the Veritas Volume Manager and Veritas File System to IBM's AIX/Monterey platforms. As regards actively selling platforms, this means that Veritas has now scooped the pool. Over recent years, Veritas has OEM'd its file system software to most major platform vendors with a level of success that almost turned the software into a de facto standard across Unix and Windows. The IBM deal seals the situation - Veritas is the standard and is sitting in what should now prove to be an unassailable position.

What this deal does is more than pull IBM into the Veritas circle - it confirms the forward trend of separating the storage equipment and software from the applications network. In effect it confirms the development of the SAN (Storage Area Network) market place and Veritas' central role (and also that of EMC) in this market.

For the moment, and probably for another five years or more, the requirement for disk space is going to continue to rise. This will be driven primarily by the increasing popularity of using the Web as a channel for video and music - both of which consume acres of disk space. To this we can add the large heaps of Web log data that must be kept. This tells us that the disk industry is likely to remain prosperous for a while yet.

Veritas is rising to become one of the largest software companies in the world, with revenues now approaching $1bn and a valuation that compares favourably with that of Computer Associates. Nevertheless it rarely attracts much attention because it deals primarily in infrastructure software. Clearly, however, it is one of the companies on which the Web is beginning to depend.

** For more analysis, see http://www.it-director.com