The Bloor Perspective: Transmeta versus Intel, HavenCo, and Chinese walls come tumbling down

Intel wants to integrate more functions into the processor chip. But the launch of the Timna integrated processor has been postponed until next year because of problems in another chip. Upstart Transmeta is more fortunate, having persuaded IBM to attempt to showcase its Crusoe processor in a prototype notebook. This could herald the all-day-on-one-battery computer.

Although the delay is embarrassing for Intel, it is unlikely to cause the company serious problems. The demand for Intel Pentium III and Celeron is high, with a build up in orders expected towards Christmas. So despite the cost penalty, PC makers may breathe a sigh of relief that manufacturing capacity will be devoted to the established chips. By the time Timna and the MTH (Memory Translator Hub) are ready, the cost gain may be somewhat eroded. It is unlikely, though, that the trend to greater integration will be halted.

Meanwhile, Transmeta is one step nearer to seeing its Crusoe chip in a commercial Windows system. Crusoe relies on software emulation of the Intel instruction set, offsetting the overhead of translation by high speed and clever cache techniques. More significantly, Crusoe has very low power consumption, holding out the prospect of laptop computers that run all day on a fully charged battery.

No PC maker has yet committed to Crusoe, but Transmeta will be delighted IBM has stated it will demonstrate a ThinkPad built around Crusoe at PC Expo later this month. IBM has yet to commit to building Crusoe-based ThinkPads for sale, but must be giving the possibility serious consideration. The company rarely makes such public gestures thoughtlessly.

Early announcements about Crusoe gave little detailed information. Transmeta started with quite modest capital and sceptics were doubtful whether the processor would become a reality. It now looks as if significant progress has been made and that we may be seeing a major innovation in low power computing.

*Offshore data haven heaven?*

On Monday 5 June a new country was founded in cyberspace and also, on the earth's surface six miles off the coast of the UK. The location is in fact a long defunct World War II military outpost, which was previously used as the home of a UK pirate radio station in the 1960s. HavenCo is a company that intends to establish an independent (of all governments) colony in cyberspace which could ultimately evolve into a real country.

HavenCo appears to comprise a group of mainly US libertarians that deeply distrust all governments and wish to establish an area of the Internet that is free from all governmental interference. It has established electricity generators on the fortress and both microwave and satellite links to the Internet. It will become an ISP and offer its services to clients who wish to place their data or computer operations or email beyond the reach of any government. Thus HavenCo's customers would be safe against subpoena. However, beyond that it will make no attempt to impose or assist the imposition of national tax laws or laws on gambling.

It is doubtful whether HavenCo will go unchallenged. Even allowing for the fact governments - including the UK government whose jurisdiction is a mere three miles away from Haven - might turn a blind eye to some violations of their laws, it is unlikely that tax violations and money laundering will be tolerated for very long. Haven will undoubtedly become a hub for such
activities if it remains unchallenged.

Haven is clearly an out-and-out challenge to the sovereignty of the international community and particularly the major economies. While we do not expect it to succeed, we believe that if governments fail to challenge it quickly then it could become a symbol of a political movement based entirely in cyberspace. It will be interesting to watch as events develop.

*The Great (Fire)Wall of China*

The Chinese leadership will have been pleased by its admission into the WTO. It will ultimately mean China has to play by the rules the global economy imposes, but China will undoubtedly bend them to ensure it impedes foreign success within China, while its own exports boom. Continuing trade surpluses against a backdrop of healthy growth is widely predicted. Nevertheless the Chinese leadership has reason to be very nervous.

The population of China with Internet access is already above 10 million and it is set to double in the next six months possibly to double yet again six months later. Indeed it is likely that the majority of the 200 million or so Chinese that could be regarded as participating in "the industrialised economy" will acquire Internet access in short order.

It was about five years ago China began to prepare for the advent of the Internet with its Great Wall project, aimed at building a virtual Great Wall around its population to prevent undesirable contact with foreigners and to clamp down on Chinese subversives. The scheme was simply to control all the access points to the World Wide Web and hence block access to undesirable addresses. The problem is it doesn't work - or at least it isn't effective.

Until recently, a partially effective block was imposed by the fact international access meant international phone call rates through Hong Kong, but users have now found ways around this. It has become an impossible job to block out every "subversive link" on the World Wide Web, especially when the politically motivated can switch locations with ease.

The Internet is de facto free speech and the Chinese leadership is powerless to change this. Membership of the WTO will only amplify the problem. It will not be long before a virtual crowd of protesters assembles in a virtual Tiananmen Square and calls for the dismissal of the Tiananmen butchers that sent in the tanks. The Chinese government will probably be the first government to be destroyed by the Internet. It has no virtual tanks.