Online vote swapping - will it turn the election upside down?

Get something you want for something you don't. The swap shop ideals always made perfect sense, but this time Noel Edmonds isn't in charge. With the general election imminent, the principle is being applied to voting. With the web as the medium, you can swap your 'useless' vote in a 'safe' seat with someone that can really use it to boost the chances of their favoured 'marginal' candidate.

The concept first saw the light of day in last year's US Presidential elections. Campaigners used websites to get Nader supporters in contested states to vote for Gore, in exchange for Democrats in states leaning heavily towards Bush to vote for Nader.

American sites such as nadertrader.org and votetrader.org have now inspired UK counterparts such as www.tacticalvoter.net on this side of the pond. They are primarily being used by left wing voters to try to cut the number of Tory seats, even though that may mean handing them to the Liberal Democrats.

Remember Billy Bragg and his red-edged tunes? Now there's someone you can rely on to stick to his political guns. Or maybe not. Forget the 1980s and fast forward to 2001 - the political popster is going yellow. Bragg has set up www.votedorset.com and he's encouraging fellow constituents to swap their labour vote in West Dorset for a Lib dem vote, while Lib Dem supporters in South Dorset could return the favour by voting Labour. Bragg is simply doing whatever it takes to keep the Tory candidate out.

Will it work, though? Bragg said: "It will be impossible to see how successful it's been until after the election."

Roger Carol is the organiser of www.stophague.com, a relative of www.tacticalvoter.net. Carol argues that tactical voting is the next best thing to proportional representation. He said: "It's the first chance for individuals to raise their voices. It's perfectly legal, you just have to trust people. It's better than chucking eggs at politicians."

But if web-organised tactical voting results in somebody being unseated, the issue will become explosive. It's already rattled many at Conservative Party HQ. After seeking advice from the Electoral Commission, the Conservatives last week decided not to pursue legal action to have the sites taken down. As the law stands, while it is illegal to facilitate the sale of votes, it's perfectly above the law to use the web as an organisational tool.

After the election, the Commission will compile a report and it's likely that it will look at new media issues including the issue of tactical online voting.

But in this election at least, who's going to bother using these sites? It's hard enough getting people to turn out let alone hoping they'll be organised and motivated enough to swap their votes online.

Expert observers have little faith in the ability of such sites to really rock the outcome of the election.

Christopher Baum, VP of e-government research at the Gartner Group, said: "It's a social experiment with no added advantage over a fax machine, only an additional layer of speed. But if it begins to threaten the power structure, how long will it remain legal?"

He claimed the lack of concern shown by the Electoral Commission over web voting sites demonstrates the realisation that tactical voting will not be making an impact this election.

Stephen Coleman, director of the Hansard Society's e-democracy programme, agrees with Baum. Vote swappers account for a very small percentage of the total voter pool, and he suggests that one of the only ways online vote swapping could really work is if it's done in a more organised and well-publicised way. He said: "You don't get ordinary people vote swapping - these are activists. It is the ultimate sacrifice for their party."

Whether you're an activist or not, we'll all be watching with interest on the morning of 8 June. If even one marginal seat turns from blue to yellow, it won't just be a victory for the Lib Dems, it'll be a victory for technology, and yet another headache for technophobe politicians.