What if... 3G was available right now?

The delayed arrival of 3G has stirred the technology industry and disappointed the punters. In this week's 'What if...' column for silicon.com, new economy commentator Dale Vile assesses just what would happen if 3G technologies arrived on our doorstep today.

Just imagine what would happen if we could wave a magic wand and make 3G networks and devices appear overnight.

Ironically, probably the worst thing operators could do if this happened is immediately flood the shops with 3G devices. Early consumers would fork out a few hundred pounds then very quickly get disappointed. They would discover that there was actually very little they could usefully do with their new device. We are already seeing this among early adopters of wireless PDA technology. It is now possible to connect a PDA using GPRS and get relatively snappy access to the internet. But what do you do then? The number of compelling consumer services designed for small form factor devices is extremely low and finding them is very difficult.

Pointing your device at the broader internet doesn't help either - the vast majority of sites are simply unusable on a quarter VGA screen, let alone anything smaller. "Aha!", you might say, but the early adopters would be business users doing calendar, email and contact management type stuff. The reality is that exploiting your shiny new 3G device in that way requires access to the Exchange server or enterprise application sitting behind the corporate firewall. That involves an IT project and there are not many of those underway right now in the mobile arena.

Whichever way you look at it, the mobile industry is simply not ready for mass uptake of mobile data technology. This underlines the fact that success of the "mobile internet" (or whichever other phrase you choose to use) is not just about the technology becoming available. It is about motivating content providers, application developers and merchants to take the mobile channel seriously. It is about creating value chains that recognise who is contributing what and rewarding them accordingly, rather than assuming the mobile operator is the centre of the universe. It is also about engaging the IT departments in corporate organisations to build the frameworks necessary for secure, cost effective and manageable deployment of mobile solutions.

The operators need to work with others to make this happen. If they don't play nicely now, they could find themselves just looking after the plumbing when the big content, application and merchant brands wake up and move. Just like the fixed internet, all many of them will ultimately require is a pipe, so best make friends with them while they still need help.

It's now getting close to that time of year again with the 3GSM World Congress in Cannes nearly upon us. Last year, this prestigious mobile industry event really summed-up the state of play. It was an orgy of engineers selling to engineers and utility companies discussing mobile data as if they were delivering water out of a tap. This is a bit of a generalisation but the event didn't provide a warm feeling about the industry knowing what to do once all of those networks had been built and optimised.

Over the past decade, wireless operators have got used to controlling everything. They have owned the network and everything delivered over it. This emphasis on ownership and control was understandable as they were trying to emulate the quality and reliability of fixed voice networks. It is much easier to assure quality of service if you control everything.

Suppliers had to live up to the resulting high expectations and deal with the dominating mindset that accompanied it. If the operator was ultimately pleased, the supplier made money, though nothing happened very quickly. The danger was that failing to deliver could mean crippling penalty clauses as a result of uncompromising one-sided contracts.

When mobile data came along, this traditional approach was clearly not appropriate against the fast moving collaborative background of the internet. The answer, some thought, was to cut loose groups of bright young things to form mobile portal subsidiaries.

Unfortunately, like over-disciplined kids let loose, these just ran around making lots of noise and causing havoc. They rebelled against their parents and went to the opposite extreme. Speed was everything, quality was nothing. Ill thought-out half-baked WAP services were thrown at the consumer who, understandably, tried them once or twice then never came back.

The last year has generated hope, however. Some operators have realised that they have no chance of getting a return on their investment in GPRS and 3G networks unless users have a reason to use them. It has become clear that "Mickey Mouse" WAP portals are not the answer.

They are making the effort, however, and are taking steps to facilitate and drive genuine value chains to provide services that customers will use and pay for. The question is how well are they doing?

This year, we are promised more solutions at 3GSM. Let's hope this happens. When GPRS was launched it was a case of "all revved up with no place to go". It would be a shame if this happened with 3G. The key is to get away from this obsession with technology, engineering and control.

What are your thoughts? If you want to respond to this article post a Reader Comment below, or email editorial@silicon.com to let us know what you'd like to see Dale cover in future 'What if...' columns.

**Dale Vile is service director at analyst house Quocirca. His C.V. boasts years at Nortel Networks, Bloor Research, SAP and Sybase and his job now involves working with vendors and users wanting to tap the business benefits of technology. For more information see: http://www.quocirca.com

Past columns:
What if... teachers were replaced by computers?
http://www.silicon.com/a50842
What if... Santa believed everything vendors told him?
http://www.silicon.com/a50007
What if... Amazon.com has bumper sales this Christmas?
http://www.silicon.com/a49685