Devil's Advocate: What chance open source?

What would it take for users to move wholesale towards open source software? More than you think, writes Martin Brampton...

Last week, we noticed the profits are rolling in for Microsoft. There are straws in the wind suggesting open source will change all that. One straw is a government report, suggesting reliance on proprietary standards is bad and that open source could offer significant advantages. Yet will all this talk ever translate into action?

There are strong points in open source's favour. Government is not far short of half the economy and many software systems are developed exclusively for some part of government. For example, council tax systems have no market outside local authorities. In this situation, it is easy to see how collective action could get results. One potentially advantageous route would be for branches of government to insist their specialist software be open source.

Many of the documents handled by government are used exclusively within the public sector. Given its size, government could, in theory, demand non-proprietary standards for office documents, thus significantly weakening the grip of commercially dictated formats. This complements the cries of, usually anonymous, IT directors who say they will react to Microsoft's latest licensing schemes by adopting Linux desktops and non-Microsoft office suites.

Out in the commercial sector, IBM and others are putting advertising spend behind further significant growth in Linux. Hardware vendors, such as HP, recognise Linux as a growth market and provide full support for it on the latest (Compaq) servers. Support services are readily available for developments that take advantage of the by now familiar robustness and efficiency of Linux.

And yet. Talk is easy, action is harder. We are up against that classic problem of IT, the 'tippy market', something we have touched on before. Once a de facto standard is entrenched, making a change is difficult. It is like trying to get a see-saw to tip, starting from the end that is already on the ground. However many people you assemble at the end that is on the ground, it is an uphill struggle to make any progress. Only when a large number have passed the pivot does anything happen, and then the see-saw suddenly tips the other way.

Are there enough people willing to take the uphill path that would ultimately cause the market to tip? However desirable it might be, the prospects look poor at present. It looks very much as if Microsoft has timed the introduction of its new pricing schemes well enough to preclude an immediate revolution by its customers. There is a lot of sound and fury but little sign of effective action.

With the immediate crisis over, many organisations will have committed to licensing Microsoft software on a basis that will leave little incentive to make an early move in any other direction. Despite all the threats in the air, how many will really be determined enough to act? The tippy market will certainly make that seem like going against the flow unless there is widespread action.

Although government has correctly identified the difficulties that ensue from the domination of proprietary standards, other issues currently have greater priority. While 'Best Value' has been the battle cry, our Prime Minister has made much of the need for government to provide an electronic channel for citizens. The emphasis on e-government is forcing pragmatic choices that are liable to leave the question of vendor lock-in an academic issue.

There is always a battle between project managers and architects. The architects want to build to better standards and look at long-term goals. They are always right in the long term, and they see the need for lively competition between vendors.

But the project managers want to get immediate results and they are always right in the short term. They deride the long-term questions as 'religious'. Neither side is wholly right but my judgment is that the project managers have the upper hand at present. What do you think?

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** Martin Brampton is a director and founder of Black Sheep Research (www.black-sheep-research.co.uk ), an independent consultancy providing research, writing and speaking services on a wide range of business and technology subjects. Martin was previously a director at Bloor Research, and has worked with IT as a user and analyst for over 20 years. He is a frequent contributor to silicon.com's Behind the Headlines TV programme and can be contacted at silicon@black-sheep-research.co.uk .