The Bloor Perspective: Messaging without Exchange, Macs not cool shock and Cisco's quarter

There has been much comment on Microsoft's efforts to encourage users to move onto one of its new subscription licensing services. Indeed, it is difficult to find any end user organisation willing to voice anything other than displeasure at the changes and the perceived restrictions these changes bring, not to mention increased costs.

Unfortunately, such is the dependence on Microsoft's tools that some organisations feel unable to contemplate moving to alternative solutions. However, recent developments in the email space are making alternatives to Exchange more viable.

It has now been reported the next release of Exchange Server - codenamed Titanium - will only be supported on Microsoft's new .Net Server platform. While the delivery of Titanium is still some way in the future, the tying in of any possible upgrade to Exchange with a simultaneous operating system upgrade is certain to cause many users to consider their options very carefully.

It is likely many organisations will simply choose to remain with their current Exchange set up, at least for the short term. This would avoid the costs and technical challenges of performing the upgrades.

However, with heavyweight challengers such as Oracle and Samsung now beginning to offer credible email server alternatives to Exchange that can be accessed using Outlook or other tools on client devices, Microsoft may find its email dominance under some pressure.

Both Oracle, with its Collaboration Suite offering, and Samsung, with its Contact tool, claim to be able to provide email server systems of very high reliability at a much lower cost point than Exchange. Microsoft's licensing changes are likely to add to the overall price pressure.

The combination of all of these factors should provide organisations with a strong motivation to investigate alternatives to both the 'do nothing' and 'Exchange upgrade' email future. Any sort of email migration or upgrade project is fraught with challenges, making 'upgrade time' a good opportunity to look afresh at alternatives.

Over the last 10 years the move has been towards Exchange. The time may be ripe for this trend to change.

CORRECTION (16.8.02): Info supplied by Microsoft...
'Titanium' code will execute on Windows 2000 servers and/or domain controllers with SP3 installed, and on Windows .Net Standard Server, Enterprise Server and Datacenter Server (member servers or domain controllers). 'Titanium' will also work with pure and mixed Windows 2000 and Windows .Net Server Active Directory environments.

*Why Nobody Buys Apple*

A story in Macworld UK says the Apple brand has been picked out as 'cool' by a survey from NFO World Group. It's all very well being cool - but when did your average IT nerd care about that? While there is no doubt Macs do have some pretty stirring design features would real technologists really want to be associated with them?

The survey itself lists such names as Bang & Olufsen, Diesel, DKNY, Haagen-Daz, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen as the type of brands that rank alongside Apple in the 'cool' stakes.

As for people, the obvious candidates are there - David Beckham, Kylie Minogue and The Simpsons. It's worth noting that none of the names - other than Apple - are major contributors to the IT sector.

Here, perhaps, is where it starts to go wrong for Apple. As a reader of this article, it is quite likely you are surrounded by a few 'technology-competent' individuals. Take a close look at them and decide whether you consider them to be cool in any shape or form. Do you think they consider you to be cool? We all know the answer to that one don't we?

IT technology is not cool and IT technologists have a tendency to stay away from anything that could be considered cool.

I am most certainly not cool but I am happy to concede recent Mac designs have been pretty neat. They have nice lines, a mixture of bright colours, even see-through casing. It's certainly not standard fare for an industry that only recently got its head around the idea computers don't have to have sharp edges.

However, it also means I don't use these rather attractive features as a part of any buying decision I might make. In fact, I would probably need a compelling reason to buy because of those features.

As a self-confessed technology nerd, I can't help feeling Apple might have done better if it spent its cash elsewhere. If all of the software and business capabilities I needed were available then I might consider buying a Mac. But it doesn't - and it's too cool.

*Cisco's surge*

Cisco saw its share price soar last week on news of growing profits and a cost cutting programme. Revenues were up too, to $4.8bn for its fourth quarter but it was the rise in profits - up 12 per cent - that really did it for the company, now riding high once again.

Taking into account costs, Cisco showed net profits of $773m, up from $7m in the corresponding period last year. Taking the costs out of the equation, it delivered net profits of roughly $1bn, or 14 cents per share, above analyst expectations of 12 cents.

The revenue growth was good year on year, although not so rosy quarter on quarter, having risen by only $0.7bn since the third quarter.

That didn't matter though. John Chambers, Cisco CEO, was back to his bullish best claiming Cisco is 'solid' despite the turbulence in the market. It gave validation to the decision to cut 8,500 jobs last year and has put Cisco back at the forefront of the tech market. He relished pointing out that his company had managed 12 per cent year-over-year revenue growth compared to his competitors who have seen a 44 per cent decline.

Quite how the firm has done it is another matter of course. Chambers put it down to a focus on: "Four key areas: profits, cash generation, productivity and profitable market share gains."

He's certainly done that. But he's still wary about the future. He said he can't see any impending turnaround in the economy and that he is a little more cautious.

It was great news for investors, who must have breathed a considerable sigh of relief, but the stock price, which has seen more than 25 per cent of its value disappear this year, reacted with a stutter - up, down, steady, staying pretty flat.

But Cisco isn't leaving it there. Following in the footsteps of IBM, it has announced plans to ramp up the stock buy-back programme, purchasing a further $5bn worth.

** Bloor Research is a leading independent analyst organisation in Europe. You can find out more at http://www.bloor-research.com or by emailing mail@bloor-research.com