Sun setting? The future for McNealy and co...

The future for Sun Microsystems is uncertain. Last Friday, its stock was the biggest faller on the Nasdaq, dragging down peers as the company forecast a dismal three months ahead. And it had only just reported its first ever year in the red. Yet Sun remains important - it is still one of the Big Five, for one thing - but is it fighting a war on too many fronts?

CEO Scott McNealy's stock has risen over the years as quickly as Sun's but even this most confident of tech leaders must wonder if his company is getting it right.

One of his many polished presentations of the past few years involved him drawing a triangle to show all the vendors, from the DECs to the ICLs, that have abandoned their own technologies - OSes, chips and more - and settled for the me-too technology of Intel and Microsoft.

His point was that these organisations eventually lost their way, that only an assured technology company like Sun - with its own chips, software and hardware designs - could compete with those with the best production, distribution and sales processes. He certainly never called Dell a failure (though he might have used the words "Great box shifter").

Only now, while Sun long ago made its robust Solaris operating system for Intel-based servers, it will now use Intel chips in some cases. Weren't Sun UltraSparc processors supposed to be superior?

And how about jumping on the Linux bandwagon after years of doubting IBM's advocacy? Sun has just started shipping Linux blade servers - perhaps convinced by the success of Linux appliances sold by Cobalt, a company Sun bought - and claims Linux will happily sit alongside Solaris.

Sun may make a lot of money from Unix servers but the company is up against formidable opponents in the shape of IBM and the new HP.

Sun has undoubted good software technology in the shape of Java, Solaris and the StarOffice desktop applications - but a major competitor on these fronts and with web services generally is the mighty Microsoft, as well as other Unix vendors and open source on the OS front.

What else is there? Sun storage technology is fine but how much is sold to non-Sun server houses? The company's grid computing initiatives may also end up generating revenues - but in 10 years, not next quarter.

Sun continues to be a multibillion dollar vendor. McNealy continues to be one of the top tech CEOs. But the company is being backed into a corner. It will aim to come out fighting.