High-tech VIPs and the silicon.com curse

Far be it for us to keep on harping on about silicon.com's Agenda Setters poll - our yearly snapshot of high-tech's movers and shakers - especially almost half a year since our most recent survey. But we must. As at least one other publication has noted, a place in our 'power 50' list has turned into a poisoned chalice (see http://www.silicon.com/2002as/top50_set.htm for the complete list.)

The past few months have already seen the demise of Jean-Marie Messier, ex of Vivendi Universal (our number four), Thomas Middelhoff, ex of Bertelsmann (seven), Ron Sommer, Deutsche Telekom (28) and now Shaun Fanning, the creator of Napster (39). And this week has seen plenty of speculation that Michel Bon (26) may be on his way out of France Telecom.

So without plumbing the depths of the poll, here's our look at who might be around for longer than the next 12 months. We give odds but aren't taking your money - and feel free to bring up any wrong forecasts in the future. We'll certainly remember the good ones...

Rupert Murdoch, CEO News Corp (1)
There's little chance of him being ousted, certainly not by shareholders wary of the kind of slump seen at competing media conglomerates. But if we're talking survival rates, we also have to point out this magnate is in his seventies, has had health problems and is thinking of a particularly thorny succession problem. Odds on being in the same job this time next year - 7-2 on.

Steve Case, chairman, AOL Time Warner (2)
A past Agenda Setter poll winner (2001), Case has already seen his lieutenant Bob Pittman exit stage left this year and the old guard from old media Time Warner assert themselves. Can he survive when his peers at Bertelsmann and Vivendi were ousted? Odds on survival - 2-1.

Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (3)
Microsoft isn't looking in bad shape and it would take a falling out with Mr Gates to rival Ike and Tina Turner's for him to go. Still, never say never. Odds on survival - 12-1 on.

Michael Dell, CEO, Dell Computer (5)
He's the founder and leader and pulse of this still growing PC company. Does he know the word failure? Who'd bet against him staying on? Odds on survival - 15-1 on.

Bill Gates, chairman and chief software architect, Microsoft (6)
Don't even suggest it - unless he wants more personal time, which will happen - one day. Odds on survival - 20-1 on.

Sergey Brin, co-founder and CTO, Google (8)
Google has been so successful and Brin such a figurehead that it's hard to imagine this Russian elsewhere. But people get itchy feet, especially good technologists. Odds on being here next year - 3-1 on.

Greg Dyke, DG, BBC (9)
Perhaps the most prone to political manoeuvring but still seen as doing a good job at the most famous public sector broadcaster. Odds on survival - 4-1 on.

Chris Gent, CEO, Vodafone (10)
A fatigued share price, bad press about pay and bad perceptions of 3G network roll outs. From the hero of the AirTouch and Mannesmann deals to villain in two years? Another past Agenda Setter winner (2000), Gent's position ain't solid. Odds on survival - evens.

Noboyuki Idei, CEO, Sony Corp (11)
A Japanese giant, still doing pretty well, jettisoning its boss? A Japanese executive moving elsewhere? Odds on survival - 8-1 on.

John Browett, CEO, Tesco.com (12)
One of the heroes of ecommerce, Browett has many admirers. He could be lured elsewhere - or his bosses could decide Tesco could do even more. Funnier things have happened. Odds on survival - 2-1 on.

Eliot Spitzer, attorney general of New York State (13)
This is the man putting Wall Street analysts in their place, trying to correct some of the wrongs of the internet bubble. Highly regarded but higher office beckons. We'll check that electoral calendar. Odds on survival - 4-1 on.

Jeff Bezos, CEO, Amazon.com
Not untouchable, not anymore at least. Still a beacon for e-tail but Amazon had better get more profitable - or he will go. Odds on being here next year - 6-4.

Steve Jobs, CEO, Apple (15)
He took long enough to settle back into the job and who would say there's a better boss for Apple? But these are - yet again - critical times for the company and a better offer may just come along. It did before. Odds on survival - 2-1 on.

So there you have it. We could go on. It wouldn't be hard to find people with the knives out for HP's Carly Fiorina, for example. See if we're right, or better still, give us your own predictions by posting a Reader Comment below.

For the full Agenda Setters 2002 special report, http://www.silicon.com/a2002 .