Devil's Advocate: Mobile mania

There is no room for miscalculation in the mobile phone market, says Martin Brampton. So what must Microsoft, Nokia et al be considering?

People are very attached to their mobile phones. The subscriber base has reached a billion this year and the handsets are rapidly becoming smarter. Where there is a mass market for software, there we find Microsoft. But this week, Sendo decided to ditch Microsoft software and make an abrupt switch to Nokia.

There are drawbacks to mobile phones in public spaces. On my regular train journeys, there can be 70 people in a coach. If each person receives a call once an hour, then a phone rings more than once a minute. And we all know how most people are quite unable to talk to a phone except in a rather loud voice.

It is possible to retaliate. One suggestion is to stand up and in a loud voice keep up a running commentary on the half of the telephone conversation that is being broadcast around the coach, repeating interesting bits to make sure everyone hears. Unfortunately, I'm not brave enough to try that and have therefore taken refuge in GNER's recently introduced quiet coaches.

Even in the quiet coach, many people cannot bear to put their phones away, and sit watching for any sign of activity. Those that take notice of the ban on mobiles then rush out of the coach, clutching the phone and asking in a stage whisper for the caller to hang on. Some, especially younger people, engage in text messaging. If the key click is switched off, it is not clear whether that counts as using a mobile phone or not, for the purposes of the quiet coach ban on use of mobiles.

Since computers became widespread, there has been speculation about the best interface. Once, it was thought everyone would learn to type. More recently, there have been advocates for speech recognition. It looks now, though, as if the preferred interface might well be one-handed operation of a dozen or so keys, aided by clever predictive software and ingenious abbreviation.

The latest phones are getting very clever and it is looking as if Nokia is no less clever. The company has achieved a remarkable market share and has for some time been very much aware of the growing importance of software for phones. Mobile handsets are rapidly turning into smart phones and that market sector will soon be indistinguishable from the wireless-enabled PDA sector.

Open source is a powerful software concept and although Nokia has not gone so far as to make its Series 60 platform full open source, it does release the source code and encourages licensees to feed back suggestions for change. It is also a remarkably powerful platform, sitting on the Symbian operating system and using a Java engine. Nokia's own huge market share is bolstered by deals with Matsushita (better known though its brand Panasonic), Samsung and Siemens, so that 60 per cent of the handset market is behind Series 60.

Now as the computing power of phones increases, the huge market for mobile handsets is liable to overwhelm the PDA market. Microsoft made some progress in its fight against Palm for the PDA market, especially for corporate purchases. But it is evidently finding it harder to gain a foothold in the mobile handset market. Innovative UK maker Sendo was therefore a coup for Microsoft.

Until, that is, Sendo abandoned Microsoft in favour of Nokia. Spokesmen are tight lipped about the reason. It may be that the contract terms were too restrictive - Nokia has played the open standards card strongly, urging the line that market growth will be faster with successful open standards. Perhaps the software was too cumbersome - that was certainly a problem with early versions of Microsoft Windows CE.

Whatever the precise reason, the handset market is critically dependent on volume and there is no room for miscalculation. The number of makers has been falling and could still fall further. Nokia already has a presence in the mainstream IT market through products such as its security appliances. It looks as though its influence will grow very much larger as the mobile phone pushes into territory once reserved for out and out computers. If you can't type one handed with 12 keys, you'd better start learning.

** Martin Brampton is a director and founder of Black Sheep Research (www.black-sheep-research.co.uk ), an independent consultancy providing research, writing and speaking services on a wide range of business and technology subjects. Martin was previously a director at Bloor Research, and has worked with IT as a user and analyst for over 20 years. He has been a frequent contributor to silicon.com's Behind the Headlines TV programme and can be contacted at silicon@black-sheep-research.co.uk .