Devil's Advocate: Microsoft and users - 2002 as a turning point

Most IT users may behave much as they have for the past few years but, Martin Brampton contends, Microsoft may be about to feel a chill wind...

Many people in IT will be glad to leave 2002 behind. Microsoft might be an exception, having been one of the few software companies to continue making huge profits. But maybe its notorious paranoia is justified for once. Maybe in 2002 attitudes changed, despite the absence of any dramatic shifts in behaviour.

Actually, we now have confirmation of what many observers have believed for a long time: Microsoft makes most of its profits from Windows and the rest from Office. Other products are either hopes for the future or things that are believed to help to maintain the dominance of Windows and Office in their respective markets.

But the shift that Microsoft made in 2002 was aimed at drawing customers into schemes involving continuous payment for software. On the face of it, the change went well for the company. Despite numerous high profile protests and much last minute posturing, there is no sign of a substantial customer revolution. That may turn out to be a superficial analysis, though, and 2002 could turn out to be an important turning point.

A few years earlier, Microsoft would have pulled off a move to software rental with scarcely a murmur. Back in 1995, people were willing to queue up in the middle of the night just to buy a copy of a new version of Windows. Any time in the late 1990s most people were persuaded that new versions of software offered real gains and few questioned the need to upgrade sooner or later. Analysts touted the idea of software rental, especially in association with the notion of application service provision.

There were some rumblings, as large organisations complained that it was impractical to roll out new versions of software at 18-month intervals. But few questioned the principle or even the cost of repeated upgrades. By this year all that was changing. Many had come to doubt that desktop productivity suites could really be significantly improved for much longer and some even wondered how much value could really be attributed to commonplace functions like word processing.

During the year, Microsoft also more or less won its long running battle over monopoly abuse. Aided greatly by the changed political environment, the company secured a judgement that seems to many remarkably generous. As a result, those who feel that Microsoft is a difficult supplier can expect no respite from legal moves, unless the European Commission unexpectedly adopts a line independent of the US authorities.

Noting Microsoft's financial results, it is hard not to interpret the many shifts in licensing rules as aimed at securing a continuing increase in revenue from the company's core products. All things considered, rather than assuming that the changes have been happily accepted, it may well be more accurate to see 2002 as a turning point in attitudes if not in actions.

Only a few organisations have worked out how to live without Microsoft. One is Banco do Brasil, which has claimed its long term aim is to migrate totally to Linux, and which it has the detailed plans in place to do so. Almost everyone who has unveiled an intention to reduce dependency on Microsoft has relied on open source alternatives such as Linux and Open Office, or the proprietary but very cheap equivalent from Sun.

Quite plainly, it is up to Microsoft's customers. If they want change, it will only come about through their actions. 2002 may well have been the year when many of them decided to think seriously about taking action.

** Martin Brampton is a director and founder of Black Sheep Research (http://www.black-sheep-research.co.uk ), an independent consultancy providing research, writing and speaking services on a wide range of business and technology subjects. Martin was previously a director at Bloor Research, and has worked with IT as a user and analyst for over 20 years. He is a frequent contributor to silicon.com's weekly Behind the Headlines TV programme and can be contacted at silicon@black-sheep-research.co.uk.