IT spend: Every silver lining has a cloud...

The latest RoperNOP Technology Confidence Barometer, which is conducted in association with silicon.com in Europe, has found that European decision makers expect to spend 6.8 per cent more on IT than they did in 2002.

That sounds like great news. Most other recent surveys of this ilk have put that figure at two to three per cent but this one is in many ways more comprehensive (and therefore, hopefully, more accurate).

Other polls tend to be dominated by large companies and manufacturing industry. The Technology Confidence Barometer takes more account of the opinions of, for example, SMEs and the public sector, both of which are planning major investment hikes.

For example, the recession-proof and target-burdened public sector is set to increase its IT expenditure by 8.5 per cent this year.

Larger organisations are still under pressure to control costs in an uncertain climate and although spend will rise here, their forecasts are considerably lower than those of smaller companies.

(The retail sector is also looking strong: a rise of 7.8 per cent should be seen in 2003.)

Controlling costs remains IT directors' top priority, however. The general economy is far from settled, and in such an environment we're not going to see a return to the boom times of a few years ago. Indeed, we may never see those days again (which some would say is no bad thing).

So behind the generally optimistic top line figures there lurks a healthy dose of realism which - for many vendors - is not great news. As spend is not set to go up uniformly across all vertical markets and in all sizes of company, some specialist suppliers may find 2003 as tough as 2002.

Little large-scale capital expenditure is planned, so few mega 'rip and replace' contracts are on the horizon. IT outsourcing and consultancy are hardly mots du jour for the average tech chief these days.

In short, don't expect bumper profits from the vendors this year. Do expect more consolidation.

But let's not be too gloomy: spend is on the rise, and that's not a bad message to begin the new year with. Hope it's a happy one for all of you.