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Just imagine - mobile Wintel dominance
How many million devices?

By editorial@silicon.com

Published: Thursday 28 February 2002

It's understandable that plenty of talk at last week's 3GSM event in Cannes focused on who will dominate future mobile devices, less so that the same subject would come up again at the Intel Developer Conference yesterday. But that's just what's happened.

Intel reckons its processors - StrongARM chips or perhaps eventually others - will be at the centre of any number of future handheld computers. Who'd expect them to say anything else? However, now there is growing evidence that any number of clone manufacturers will cheaply produce handheld PCs using Intel technology and - you know what we're going to say - a Microsoft operating system.

Yes, that's right - there is a growing consensus the Wintel duo, in cahoots with hardware OEMs, may dominate future mobile and wireless markets, undercutting the now cheaper Palms and even some mobile phones.

At the moment nothing is set in stone but rewind 20 years and the PC market was at a similar stage. And we know what happened there.

Microsoft, with its PocketPC OS, is pulling no punches in targeting manufacturers that might otherwise consider the Palm or Symbian OSes. Add that might to Intel, gather together dozens of volume device manufacturers unafraid of wafer-thin margins and, well, you get the idea.

Only there are some problems with this crystal ball gazing. For one thing, the Wintel success in the PC space relies on just that - space. Bloated operating systems (not to mention applications) rely on ever-faster and larger PCs. One feeds off the other.

Yet when it comes to the mobile world less is more. A small footprint OS from, say, Symbian will work on what's cutting edge in the smart phone market, as those in that field who know realise. (They also happen to largely be Symbian's investors.)

In short, Microsoft still has much to prove in mobile. But it and Intel are moving up fast.