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Where have all the data carriers gone?
Endangered species?

By editorial@silicon.com

Published: Monday 08 July 2002

Our data carriers are mainly teetering on the edge of an abyss and all we can do is sit and watch. Should we be scared the dwindling market will reduce competition within Europe, leaving users again staring down the barrels of incumbents' loaded shotguns?

Today's fears of telco calamity and the death of the internet may be overstated. This week's Behind the Headlines on silicon.com looks at whether the reason for KPNQwest's demise and WorldCom's growing financial concerns - more network capacity than demand - is something we should really be worried about.

Julian Hewett, Ovum co-founder and chief analyst, said on the programme that the problem in today's data carrier market is a glut of expensive network capacity, not bringing its creators a good enough revenue stream.

Hewett reckons regional networks will not be filled until at least 2005, a prediction far in excess of the instant-demand forecasts made by research companies a couple of years ago.

Brian Nesbitt, ex-head of KPNQwest's UK field engineers had a lot to say in response to Hewett's analysis. After 42 years working within the same area, Nesbitt said he had been told since the year dot that there was "too much capacity available".

Nesbitt said although there may be some spare capacity right now, technologies would be developed in the near future that will take advantage of available bandwidth.

There is excess network capacity today - much to the chagrin of carriers who built giant networks expecting massive demand. Users should be in no doubt that this capacity will come in useful - but in the future when content will be created to tempt us all to part with hard-earned cash in return for flashy video streams and the like.

That time will come too late for some of the big guys, who are unlikely to see the light of day again. The network will live on, though maybe not their part of it.