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14.28 Wednesday 14th May 2008

Peter Cochrane's Blog: A petabyte before I die...

Written in a coffee shop in Ipswich UK and dispatched via a company wi-fi service.

Today I was in a well-known electronics store buying an audio connector for £1.46 when I was offered a mouse for 23p. Yes, 23p I couldn't believe it - nor could I resist.

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Now I don't need another mouse but for 23p - who cares? Of course I suspected it would be some piece of junk they just wanted to get rid of. But no, this was a first-class, fully functional item of the kind I paid £25 for only a few years ago.

In the same vein I have attended conferences and company events over the past two years where the attendees have been given 4GB memory sticks, earphones, thumbprint readers, USB lights and fan attachments, USB hubs, mouses, LED torches, novel keyboards, wi-fi detectors and more.

I can remember not so long ago when being given a plastic pen or a mug was a big deal.

Just how cheap can all this IT stuff get? Will this much-more-for-much-less regime continue, or will it stop abruptly? I can't see why it should ever stop, unless we start to run out of creativity, ingenuity or the necessary raw materials.

Gordon Moore's 1965 observation that the density of transistors on integrated circuits - and hence to some extent computational power - would double every 24 months seemed correct for quite a while.

But over the following 30 years or so, the time to double shrank to just 18 months, and in some specific domains the next decade saw it reduced further to more like 12 months.

And Moore-type laws seem to apply to data storage and everything else, and always the time to double gets shorter year on year.

So this doubling sequence looks like this:

2^n/2 >>30 years>> 2^n2/3 >>10 years>> 2^n >>5 years >> 2^n3/2

What does this mean? That 1TB storage unit my son built with four 250GB hard drives in a PC frame at a cost of £3,000 just eight years ago can now be replaced by a much smaller box complete with power supply and all interfaces for a mere £130.

It also means I can confidently predict I will probably be the proud owner of at least one petabyte - 1PB = 1,000TB = 1,000,000GB - well before I die.

You don't believe me? Well, as a young engineer I remember spending obscene amounts of company money for things we now all own and take for granted.

For example, a Winchester Drive of 20MB capacity housed in something close to the size of my airline hand baggage was £20,000 in the early 1970s.

In contrast I recently bought two 1TB drives boxed complete with power supply and all interfaces for a mere £260 - plus of course a new mouse for 23p.

Peter Cochrane is an engineer, scientist, entrepreneur, futurist and consultant. He is the former CTO and Head of Research at BT, with a career in telecoms and IT spanning over 40 years. Peter has also held a number of prominent academic positions including the UK's first Professor for the public Understanding of Science and Technology. For more about Peter, see www.cochrane.org.uk.


15.48 Tuesday 29th April 2008

Peter Cochrane's Blog: Airport insecurity

First drafted on flight BA633 from Athens to London and finished on BA093 to Toronto a week later. Dispatched via a free wi-fi service.

Before 9/11, I regularly travelled the planet with a full toolkit as well as other objects that are now classified as contraband.

After 9/11, an occasional lapse of memory meant my hand baggage continued to contain items no longer permitted in the cabin. I was surprised when these offending objects went undetected on international and internal flights.

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So, what had its roots in a memory lapse gradually mutated into an experiment - to see how long I could go without these items being detected.

The big question in my mind has always been just what can be detected and how much safer are we? Like the rest of you, I have stood in line as my luggage is X-rayed, followed by the occasional arms-outstretched pat down.

At a modest estimate I have passed through well over 200 airport terminals - and hence their security systems - right across the planet including Australia, Europe, the Far East, the Middle East and Scandinavia, since 9/11.

For speed and convenience of travel I never check a bag into the hold and have found ways of living with one or two smaller bags in the carry-on regime that we regular travellers have all grown to love.

So, continuously travelling with scissors, nail file, tweezers and my full mini-electrical tool kit I have traversed the planet unchallenged and unimpeded.

Well, that's not quite true. Nothing happened at all for five years after 9/11. I enjoyed trouble-free travel - no one spotted a thing. But then Toronto staff became the first to find my nail scissors, which were promptly confiscated.

A year or so later Paris airport personnel also succeeded in locating my scissors but they measured the length of the blade and decided they were OK and handed them back. Neither airport's security systems spotted my nail file, tweezers or toolkit.

Not until last week did anyone spot the biggie. At last my toolkit was spotted, located and confiscated. And so the biggest security prize to date goes to Athens.

Unfortunately, Athens staff were thrown off the scent by the enormity of their find and overlooked my scissors, nail file and tweezers. And so I can't really award them the gold medal. But it was nonetheless an impressive piece of work. Well done, Athens.

This morning I experienced a second detection success and my nail scissors were confiscated at Heathrow T4. But again they missed everything else.

So what might we conclude? If there is any improvement in detection rates at airports, it seems to be marginal to date. And so are we flying any more safely?

To be honest my pen is much more of a weapon than anything else in my baggage, not to mention the metal knife and fork I just used for my breakfast in the airline lounge, or indeed the bottles of spirits I'm now allowed to purchase duty free.

We have always relied on the vast majority of people being good and honest - and the reality is we still do. The new systems and equipment deployed and being developed to pre-qualify us before we even get to the airport give an added reassurance.

But the reality is the detection of specific objects by scanners has some way to go before it approaches 100 per cent reliability, and full automation is absolutely essential. As always, to spot banned items we are dependent on people's alertness, concentration and diligence, which are all extremely variable.

Incidentally, my airport security experiment is now suspended.

Peter Cochrane is an engineer, scientist, entrepreneur, futurist and consultant. He is the former CTO and Head of Research at BT, with a career in telecoms and IT spanning over 40 years. Peter has also held a number of prominent academic positions including the UK's first Professor for the public Understanding of Science and Technology. For more about Peter, see www.cochrane.org.uk.


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